It looks like the recession is coming to an end. Manufacturing confidence is returning, the stock market is rising, property is selling again and slowly but surely the economy is growing again. If these trends continue then within a few months we should also see unemployment peak and start to fall.

All these things have happened more quickly than the pessimists suggested because the Government was pro-active in fighting the downturn. VAT and interest rates were cut and public spending increased to boost trade and protect jobs. By bringing forward capital projects and introducing the car scrappage scheme the construction and car industries were cushioned from the worst of the economic storm, the number of people who lost their homes was minimised because the Government gave real help to people in trouble and those folks who, tragically, did lose their jobs were offered practical help by the Job Centre.

Of course these measures cost a lot of money but they have meant the recession was shorter and less painful than it would otherwise have been. Now we have to start clawing back some of that spending and reducing the national debt. But the big question is when should that process start and how quickly should it happen?

We can start now to cut spending and we can make the cuts deep and painful as the Tories propose but if we do that we face the real risk of plunging the economy back into recession. Or we can wait until the economy is stronger and make the cuts without risking the recovery, which is what the Government proposes.

The recessions of the 80s and 90s came about because the Tory Government allowed inflation to get out of control and then had to raise interest rates and cut public spending to bring it down. That were taking money out of the economy and the recessions that followed and the massive hikes in unemployment were inevitable. Do you remember mortgage interest rates at 15% and Thanet unemployment going sky high?

This slow down is different. It was not caused by inflation and rising interest rates. It was caused by a world financial crisis that began in America and which led to the supply of money drying up. The cure was for Governments and Central Banks to cut interest rates and put money into the economy. But the Tories don’t seem able to recognise this difference and so they continually put forward ideas that would make things worse.

For Labour Governments, one person unemployed is one to o many. One person losing their house is one too many. For us the priority of the Government is to help the people least able to help themselves. That is why we will balance the national finances as quickly as we can but do it without plunging the nation back into recession – with the Tories it will be straight back to the days of boom and bust.